London, 26 February 2025: The UK Climate Change Committee's seventh carbon budget advice was published this morning, charting a future for the country’s shipping and aviation sectors.

The report shows that shipping is overtaking aviation on the path to net zero, but government policy is pivotal for getting both sectors on track to meet their targets.

Aoife O’Leary, CEO of Opportunity Green, says:

"The UK government's top climate advisors show that the aviation sector will make up a quarter of all emissions in 2040 – a staggering increase from where it stands at the moment at 7%. This is even with much more stringent measures than are currently in place, showing just how important it is to step up regulation to reduce emissions immediately. Meanwhile, 15% of people take 70% of flights in the UK – using up that proportion of the UK's carbon budget on a very small section of the population is extraordinary. The only other sector which is projected to emit nearly as many emissions in 2040 is agriculture, begging the question of whether flying should really be given the same priority as the farmers feeding the UK population."

Shipping is projected to decarbonise at a quicker rate than aviation, but still has steps to go. Aoife says:

"This report shows that it is possible for the shipping sector to reduce emissions by 62% by 2040 and to near zero by 2050. Considering the UK government has declined to include international shipping in its emissions trading system and does not have a fuel standard requirement for the maritime industry (unlike the EU), this means the UK is relying heavily on international regulations like those the International Maritime Organization is projected to agree this April. A high price on all well-to-wake GHG emissions from international shipping, like the USD$150 per tonne CO2e levy put forward by the Pacific Island States and others, could help to secure such an outcome in emissions reductions, so we will be looking for a continued push from the UK to get the levy over the line in April.”